This is a bit of a departure from my normal blogs but this came up in conversation twice yesterday. I thought it useful to link to a few of the key references on this subject. For many years we have been led to think that human population is growing. In actual fact, the rate of human reproduction has been declining since the 1960s. This is despite recently reaching 8 billion people in the world. The reason for the time difference is a lag-effect, which is quite normal in ecological systems. On the question, is the human population growing? No, it’s shrinking. It’ll just take a little more time for that to manifest. Understanding this and the power of nature to restore (as I discuss in Wildlife in the Balance), gives me hope that are not doomed. It’s the reason why I can remain optimistic about the future while being simultaneously concerned about the present.
What is sustainable?
We already know our population is unsustainable in regards to Earth’s natural resources. Populations, whether it’s a corporation, species or virus, follow very similar patterns of growth and decline. These are often due to very similar causes. It’s always the same though. There is an exponential phase of rapid growth, followed by a stationary phase, then a decline phase.
Here is a graph from a study on bacteria. The GASP phenotypes are mutations that give a last ‘GASP’ of life to a species along the decline path. Below that is a graph showing the lifecycles of ‘species’ of Social Media platform since 2004. Look closely, you can even see ‘gasps’ in the decline phases.
Decline in the rate of growth
Here are some important graphs on human population. The first is world population growth rates between 1950 and 2050. As you can see, globally, since about 1965, the rate of growth has been continuously declining. This is the difference between births and deaths. Once deaths slightly outweigh births, human population will begin to decline. On the evidence of this graph, this process has already begun.
Global fertility is also declining. As the data from Pew Trusts (below) show, we are already below the Replacement Rate needed to maintain our population. Average age is increasing and fertility is declining. Add to this the effect of phtaltates forever chemicals. There is good evidence that these are causing freefall decline in male fertility with sperm counts having declined by 52.4 percent between 1973 and 2011. This is worst in Western countries with the majority of our economic dependence.
Human population
No-one can tell the future but what we do know is that our population cannot continue to grow. The question is how soon will it decline and what will happen when it does? These estimates vary. The latest predictions from the UN are that we will reach the stationary phase by about 2086 and start declining after that. The following graph superimposes the rate of growth onto actual population.
What will this mean?
The graph above does not include the likelihood that there will be a global decline in fertility. Despite the graph above, in Western countries, population decline is expected to happen sooner. An overall decline of 6% in Europe by 2100 is bolstered by 10-15% in many countries. The economic powerhouses of the world depend on population growth to maintain competitiveness. There is going to be a very significant decline in global trade and a contraction of economies to a more local level over the coming 50-100 years.
Ultimately this will mean the localisation of food security. But climate change and the eradication of soil fertility though decades of abuse of pesticides and fertilisers will mean a return to organic farming. Superphosphate will no longer be available. People won’t be able to afford cars (especially electric ones). There won’t be smartphones or the internet. Farmers won’t be able to afford chemicals. We will see a rapid return to the way our grandparents lived. As I wrote about in this blog, people won’t be any less happy. It’s is not a future to fear but one that we have to embrace now, if we’re to make the transition comfortable for our kids.
The power of nature to restore
Climate change is a problem we are all touched by. The status quo of every company, household, society and country is going to be changed. We are going to need to adapt fast. However, climate is merely how a planet presents itself, as a combination of all ecosystemsHow ecosystems function An ecosystem is a community of lifeforms that interact in such an optimal way that how ecosystems function best, is when all components (including humans and other animals) can persist and live alongside each other for the longest time possible. Ecosystems are fuelled by the energy created by plants (primary producers) that convert the Sun's heat energy More functioning together. If we break lots of ecosystems, like we have, through release of surplus energy and reduction in animal numbers, we destabilise the climate.
The most important quote I have come across in recent months is this:
Even ‘intermediate levels’ of fish species loss reduces algal production more than climate warming. Higher levels of extinction has effects rivalling ozone layer loss, ocean acidification and even nutrientEnergy and nutrients are the same thing. Plants capture energy from the Sun and store it in chemicals, via the process of photosynthesis. The excess greenery and waste that plants create, contain chemicals that animals can eat, in order to build their own bodies and reproduce. When a chemical is used this way, we call it a nutrient. As we More pollution. In other words, the greatest impact has not come from our loading of the world with pollution, but the reduction in resilienceReferring to an ecosystem’s ability to maintain a steady stable-state. The need to build resilience is entirely anthropocentric and symptomatic of ecosystems that are damaged or declining, leading to loss of ecosystem services on which humans depend. More, created by killing animals.
If you have not read my book, this explains why.
Everything you do today, to protect and more importantly, restore, your local environment, is essential. Even if we can’t manage this enough, the contraction of our population and economies, is already allowing many animals to come back from extinction. Rebuilding ecosystem loss is quite simple because the power of nature to restore is so incredibly rapid.
Look at how fast wildlife is making a comeback in Europe. To help ourselves along the way, do everything you can to help rebuild a world with abundant and diverse wildlife.
