Home » The greatest threat to ecosystem life support is chaos

The greatest threat to ecosystem life support is chaos

by simon

New research shows the impact of climate change on forests is to “scramble the biological clock of the forest floor“. The study shows how the change in timing of various events disconnects flowering plants, for example, from the activity of insects.

Warmer temperatures and altered precipitation patterns are expected to continue to occur as the climate changes. How these changes will impact the flowering phenology of herbaceous perennials in northern forests is poorly understood but could have consequences for forest functioning and species interactions. 

It’s rare to find a study that shows this. Most science makes linear assumptions about climate change impacts, e.g. that they will result in the decline or increase in a species’ population. In fact, the effect is to increase in some places and decrease in others.

Ecosystems are entropy-based. Pristine ecosystems have maximised entropy production … that’s like saying, everything follows a predictable pattern, like a smooth curve. You can predict where on the curve to arrive, based on “instinct” that is partly genetic and partly learned. You know what happens when availability of toilet paper became less predictable during the pandemic? That’s an example of increased entropy. It causes a break in normal patterns. The panic buying is chaotic as it is erratic and patchy. You could say it causes a breakdown of “information entropy”.

Climate change introduces free surplus energy into systems. This means more entropy and therefore, more perturbations in the curve, so the behaviour of all animals and plants, becomes more chaotic. Animals don’t panic-buy, they follow instinct … but the outcomes are the same. It’s more likely they will plot a course to a location and miss altogether. This could be the time of year a plant fruits, or the movement of a migratory prey animal. As the environment’s entropy increases, things become less predictable and the system destabilises as things can’t find enough energy where they expect to*.

This same process also happens when you kill animals. The energy they would have consumed and locked inside their lifecycles and everything connected to them, is emitted as positive entropy and it destabilises ecosystems. As all animals are carbon-based, climate change is coupled to the mass extinction of animals.

What this paper teaches us, is we must start thinking in terms of stability and chaos. It’s the breakdown of the wildlife structures (the “animal impact”) that changes the fabric on which we depend for our own life support.

*The amount of energy has remained the same, it’s just become redistributed.


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