If we wait for proof to make environmental decisions, we’ll fail to reverse the sixth mass extinctionAnimal life hasn't existed for very long on planet Earth. In the last 500 million years, there have been five mass extinctions, defined as events that wiped out at least 75% of animal life. The Devonian mass extinction is considered to have been caused by the rise of plants on land, which polluted the oceans in the absence of animals. More and will rapidly destroy our chance of survival. Proof is a panacea, because ecosystemsHow ecosystems function An ecosystem is a community of lifeforms that interact in such an optimal way that how ecosystems function best, is when all components (including humans and other animals) can persist and live alongside each other for the longest time possible. Ecosystems are fuelled by the energy created by plants (primary producers) that convert the Sun's heat energy More are too complex for science to every understand completely.
Ecology is also complex because species are constantly being driven to extinction:
“It would be like if you were a particle physicist and you had to get up every morning worrying that the Higg’s particle went extinct”, John Harte, Berkeley University.
We have to accept that stabilisation of ecosystems and resilience-building are prerequisites for a habitable Earth, so we cannot study today’s ecosystems, because most are in a state of chaos(Of energy and ecosystems). Ecosystems are thermodynamically driven. Disorder occurs when energy dissipates and becomes more chaotic. For example, the release of hot air into the atmosphere results in that energy is freer to disperse (maximum entropy). The opposite is true when energy is locked into biological processes, when it is stored inside molecules (minimum entropy). Stability in ecosystems occurs More. All we’re doing is confusing ourselves, by coming up with an assortment of examples of the way things aren’t working. Each observation is only an iota and the further we move from steady stable-state(of an ecosystem) where free surplus energy is minimised, where there is maximum entropy production and minimum waste. In such a system, there is expected to be relatively small fluctuations in atmospheric and other chemistry and where disruption or disturbance occurs, the resulting changes can be absorbed quickly by a succession of new plants and animals that enter to fill More ecosystems, the more deranged our overall assumptions become.
In short, there is no way to release ourselves from the punishment we will face from breaking Earth’s systems, if we wait to understand the mechanisms behind what makes ecosystems work. There will be no absolution for our sins, unless we can start making common sense decisions based on inference–we have all we already need to know, about what constitutes a working environment. It is one that is rich in animal life.
This is why I like studies like this one about Blue Whales and the modelThe process, either mathematically or in the human brain, of creating an internal version of something that we can refer to, to better understand how it functions and our place within. Scientific modelling is where we take the best knowledge we have and build a version of what will happen, if we assume certain parameters. For example, we might model More animation, below.
These aren’t real data. The authors didn’t satellite track whales, they have built a model and inferred the behaviour of a Blue Whale (blue dot) against the movement of vessel traffic (dark red dots). It is precautionary guidance about what will happen to ecosystems, if we do not remove obstacles to wild animal behaviour.
The difficulty only comes when this is placed in front of decision-makers.
Scientists will always want more evidence to improve the model, because this is their job, but conservationWhy is animal conservation important? Animal conservation is important, because animals are the only mechanism to create biodiversity, which is the mechanism that creates a habitable planet for humans. Without animals, the energy from today’s plants (algae, trees, flowers etc) will eventually reach the atmosphere and ocean, much of it as carbon. The quantity of this plant-based waste is so More scientists can easily become stuck in a paradox of their own making, when researchers lust for more data and decision-makers think this means an absence of evidence … governments use uncertainty as an excuse to delay decisions, even though absolute proof will never be achieved.
conservation scientists can easily become stuck in a paradox of their own making, when researchers lust for more data and decision-makers think this means an absence of evidence
Even if we wanted to understand how Blue Whales behave around ships, we will never know, because there are hardly any Blue Whales left. According to the International Whaling Convention (IWC), an estimated 362,879 Blue Whales were killed[2], or a reduction to just 0.07–0.29% of natural levels. The ecosystem has been changed from one of some stability, to one of chaos so any present-day study of Blue Whales will simply reveal some random variation of the reality that’s needed, to stabilise ocean processes. Blue Whales are, after all, conspicuous components of ecosystem structures that need the animals to stabilise, that create the weather that supports our economies. These impacts are on a continental and even global scale.
This is just common-sense and it applies to all animals, not just Blue Whales. It makes no sense to delay decisions to protect wildlife. This is why inferring risk and committing to a calculated effort to recreate wild animal populations is our only hope for maintaining a habitable planet.
- Bedriñana-Romano, L., Hucke-Gaete, R., Viddi, F.A. et al. Defining priority areas for blue whale conservation and investigating overlap with vessel traffic in Chilean Patagonia, using a fast-fitting movement model. Sci Rep 11, 2709 (2021). https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-021-82220-5
- Branch, T.A., et al., Past and present distribution, densities and movements of blue whales Balaenoptera musculus in the Southern Hemisphere and northern Indian Ocean. Mammal Review, 2007. 37(2): p. 116-175.
